President George Bush briefs the nation from the National Hurricane Center. Max Mayfield, Director of NHC and Florida Governor Jeb Bush look on.
President George W. Bush delivers a statement to Floridians affected by Hurricane Frances at NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami on Sept. 8. Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush participated in the briefing. White House photo by Eric Draper. Hurricane Frances regional imagery from GOES 12 (1KM) compiled on Sept. 5. Credit: NOAA NESDIS' Environmental Visualization Lab.
NOAA's 5-day hurricane forecasts are as good as our 3-day forecasts were 10 years ago – and Hurricane Frances forecasts were even better than that! NOAA issued a hurricane warning for Florida 2 1/2 days in advance. A huge thanks to director Max Mayfield and his superb crew at the National Hurricane Center and to the many, many others at NOAA who also work tirelessly to coordinate forecasts, watches and warnings; mitigate human and property loss; and communicate preparedness and other safety tips.

NHC Director Max Mayfield points to Hurricane Frances' forecast track to President Bush.

White House Photo by Eric Draper

Kudos for Team NOAA efforts have reached us from many directions, beginning with the President. On Wednesday, President Bush, FEMA Director Mike Brown, Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Red Cross CEO Marti Evans met with Max Mayfield, and then walked through the National Hurricane Center to check out operations and, I am very gratified to report, shake hands and chat with our staff.

Max explained that the battle against hurricanes is won outside the hurricane season, and noted the helpfulness of the "Hurricane Preparedness Week" proclaimed by President Bush for the past four years. He underscored that America's hurricane program is a true team effort, involving tremendous effort from NOAA and our partners. He said the effort starts with observations and, as you know, we are working extremely hard to create an integrated U.S. and global Earth Observation System. NOAA satellites, the NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface observations by NOAA buoys, and the NOAA weather balloons that are launched twice daily are each critical links in the emerging global earth observation system.  

With pride, Max talked about how, during Hurricane Frances, the G-IV flew daily and how, when the storm was near land, the missions flew back-to-back. He credited the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center and the Hurricane Research Division with flying afternoon and evening, refueling, and then taking right off again.

The President examined a GPS dropwindsonde, or weather station, learning how it transmits atmospheric data back to the aircraft. Max emphasized that a dropwindsonde collects a tremendous amount of vital data that, when fed into computer models, produces more consistent forecast results.

Max told President Bush that some of the unsung heroes are those who have dedicated their careers to developing and improving computer models. On a computer screen, Max showed the President the NOAA Global Forecast System, the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, and the Navy NOGAPS model. Each model has a different forecast. Together they yield a consistent one.

Max also talked about partnerships across NOAA – of hotline telephone calls between the NOAA Weather Forecast Offices, the NOAA tornado forecasters in Norman, and the precipitation and marine forecasters at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, as well as the Defense Department, Navy, U.S. Air Force Weather Agency and NASA. He showed the President an example of the Hydro-meteorological Prediction Center forecast of Frances. This forecast focuses on inland flooding, sometimes the cause of the greatest loss of life attributed to hurricanes.

President Bush said hello to nearly every staff member and graciously posed for many photos before conducting a press conference from the National Hurricane Center.


There is much more. Between August 24 and September 7, the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center website received 906 million hits. Peak daily rate was 168 million hits.

Beginning August 24, NOAA coordinated forecasts, watches and warnings with meteorological services in every country in Hurricane Frances' path. Via 33 national/state video teleconferences and 21 state briefings, the NOAA/FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team provided analysis, graphical guidance and one-on-one question and answer opportunities for emergency management officials, other local decision-makers and the press. In the three days before Frances' landfall, Max Mayfield and Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, each handled about 80 press interviews. Another 250 calls from press and concerned citizens were fielded each day by public affairs and other staff.

Beginning on August 28, NOAA Corps pilots flew into Hurricane Frances daily. In 58 hours of flight time, WP-3D pilots dropped over 100 dropsondes, or weather instruments, collecting real-time surface wind data that determined the extent of hurricane force winds and assisted the National Hurricane Center in deciding when and where to post hurricane warnings and watches. In 70 hours of flight time, G-IV pilots deployed 250 dropwindsondes around Hurricane Frances to help improve the forecast track. Soon after, NOAA aircraft began flying into Hurricane Ivan.

As Peter Black, of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOC), put it, "It is a testament to the pre-planning and creativity of all that we are able to still fulfill our obligations for G-IV and Frances flights while our two cities of operation, Miami and Tampa, are under threat from Frances."

Much credit also goes to the outstanding and extraordinary efforts of AOC maintenance staff and flight engineers, who kept the aircraft functioning flawlessly, and the electronic engineering technician staff, who kept the computers, radars and electronic systems moving despite a hostile hurricane environment.

In an effort to analyze data-sparse areas in/around a hurricane's environment, which will lead to improved hurricane tracking guidance and financial savings for our customers, NOAA is pioneering the science of hurricane surveillance via aircraft. Beginning August 30, NOAA aircraft equipped with Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer flew routinely into Frances. This system remotely senses wind speeds at the ocean-atmosphere interface, which is critical for assessing the strength of a hurricane, maximum wind speeds, and the respective changes.  NOAA scientists coordinated the development of this evolving technology and have been instrumental in developing algorithms to interpret the data. Verification of observations was completed in each of the four quadrants of Frances, allowing forecasts that fine-tuned Frances' arrival, time and location.

Emergency managers and the general public benefited from a variety of NOAA- produced hazard information, analyses and graphics/maps, including storm surge forecasts from the NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, Flash Flood Guidance, and real-time hurricane wind field data from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) H*Wind experimental model. For the first time, NOAA's National Digital Forecast Database products, including wave height, wind speed and forecast precipitation, were used by officials at FEMA to help manage hurricane response at landfall.

NOAA conducted super rapid scan operations on GOES-East on August 29 and August 30, providing satellite imagery as often as every minute, with up to 5-minute rapid scans performed from August 31 through September 7. Satellite-derived products provided continuous rainfall estimates for field forecasters, and NOAA's Operational Significant Event Imagery was distributed by several major news wire services. Over the life span of Hurricane Frances, NOAA provided uninterrupted web service for forecasts, watches/warnings and satellite imagery/loops.

NOAA's National Water Level Observation Network and other tide stations, such as PORTS, provided real/near real-time data throughout the storm. Aerial photo assistance was provided for multiple affected areas. Team NOAA also responded on-site to determine the extent and duration of an acidic release near Tampa Bay, and we are now coordinating assessment activities with other state and federal agencies.  

Not bad for one hurricane! And as I write this, we're headed into Ivan with NOAA's great efforts during Charley and Frances still fresh in mind.

I have never been more proud of our agency. Thank you for excellent work!

Conrad Lautenbacher's Signature
Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and
NOAA Administrator
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This message was generated for the Under Secretary of Commerce for
Oceans and Atmosphere by the NOAA Information Technology
Center/Financial and Administrative Computing Division