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Seasonal Forecast Seasonal Forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

The 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season is history and was, as expected, an average one. The seasonal forecasts issued by the Colorado State University (CSU) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. were both quite well. The first seasonal forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued by the CSU was issued on December 9, 2009, the second one will be issued on April 7, the third on June 2 and the fourth on August 4, 2010. More updates will follow in early September and October of this year.

Information obtained through December 2009 indicates that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, according to the CSU forecasters, will be more active than the 2009 season and that we will see activity somewhat above the 1950-2000 season average. The expected tropical cyclone activity during this season should be slightly above the 1950-2000 average season. It is estimated that 2010 will have between six and eight hurricanes (average is 5.9), eleven to sixteen named storms (average is 9.6), 51 to 79 named storm days (average is 49.1), 24 to 39 hurricane days (average is 24.5), three to five major (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and six to twelve major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of a Caribbean and U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be somewhat above the long-period average. The Atlantic Basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is forecast to be about 108 to 172 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niņo conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore the Colorado State University forecasters do not utilize a specific El Niņo Southern Oscillation forecast as a predictor. These forecasters expect to see the moderate to strong El Niņo event that is currently in progress, to diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. are also planning to issue a seasonal forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity. The first one however won't be issued until May 2010

It should be noted that none of these seasonal forecasts has any operational value. This means that no matter how many tropical cyclones are forecast to develop, there is no way to predict so many months in advance where a certain tropical cyclone is going to develop and what areas, if any, will be affected. Remember too that it takes only one major hurricane in even a quiet season (Andrew in August 1992 over South Florida) to move over a populated area to make it a significant event.
Therefore, it is important that the entire community in the hurricane region prepares itself before the start of each hurricane season. The Meteorological Service will monitor the development of any tropical disturbance closely and will issue watches or warnings in case this is necessary.


Rainfall Outlook 2010
The year 2009 ended and 2010 started with a moderate El Niņo phase dominating the weather over our islands. That’s the main reason of the below average rainfall observed during the 2009 rainy season (-74%) of the ABC Islands. In fact, with so little rain, there was no actual 2009 rainy season to speak of in these Islands. Even the SSS Islands, which should have received average rainfall during the second half of 2009, received less than that. March and April 2010 are forecast to remain relatively dry, because of El Niņo's influence.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
in the tropical Pacific Ocean however are forecast to decrease during the second quarter of 2010 (April, May and June) to neutral values and that is expected to lead to average or even slightly above average values of rainfall in the ABC Islands. In the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, little significant change in sea surface temperatures is expected during this year. This is forecast to result in a better chance of significant rainfall for both the ABC and the SSS islands during the second half of 2010. 

Last updated: February 26, 2010.

 
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