» Home
» About us
» Current weather
» Forecast
»

Cyclones

» Climate
» Reports
» Images
» Press
releases
» Links
» Contact us
» Disclaimer
 
Seasonal Forecast Seasonal Forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

The 2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season was an average one. The first seasonal forecasts issued by the Colorado State University (CSU) for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued by the CSU was published on December 9, 2009, the second one came out on April 7, the third was issued on June 2 and the fourth appeared on August 4, 2010. More updates will follow in early September and October.

Information obtained through July 2010 indicates that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. The forecasters of the CSU estimate that 2010 will have about 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 18 named storms (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of Caribbean major hurricane activity and U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average. These forecasters expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 195 percent of the long-term average. The CSU forecasters have increased their seasonal forecast from early April but have maintained their June forecast amount of tropical cyclones.

Forecasters of the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. have also issued a seasonal forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity in August. This forecast calls for an 90% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 0% chance of a below-normal season. The conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of NOAA's predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season: 14-20 Named Storms, 8-12 Hurricanes and 4-6 Major Hurricanes.

The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in about 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These ranges include the two tropical storms and one hurricane seen to date. During June – July 2010, two named storms (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie) formed in the Atlantic basin. The pre-season outlook issued in late May reflected the possibility of even more early-season activity. As a result, the upper ends of the predicted ranges have been reduced. Nonetheless, significant activity is predicted for the remainder of the season, with an additional 12-17 named storms, of which 7-11 are expected to become hurricanes with 4-6 reaching major hurricane status.

It should be noted that these seasonal forecasts have limited operational value. This means that no matter how many tropical cyclones are forecast to develop, there is no way to predict so many months in advance where a certain tropical cyclone is going to develop and what areas, if any, will be affected. Remember too that it takes only one major hurricane in even a quiet season (Andrew in August 1992 over South Florida) to move over a populated area to make it a significant event.

Therefore, it is important that the entire community in the hurricane region prepares itself before the start of each hurricane season. The Meteorological Service will continuously monitor the development of any tropical disturbance closely and will issue watches or warnings in case this is necessary. The moderate El Niņo phase which dominated the weather over our islands during especially the second half of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 is now history. It was the main reason of the below average rainfall observed during the 2009 rainy season (-74%) in the ABC Islands. In fact, with so little rain, the rainy season in these islands was uneventful. Even the SSS Islands, which should have received average rainfall during the second half of 2009, received less than that.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have decreased in the meantime (August 2010) to below average values and that has already lead to above average values of rainfall in the ABC Islands. In the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, the sea surface temperatures are already at above average levels and the outlook is for these higher than normal temperatures to persist throughout the remainder of 2010. This is forecast to result in a good chance of significant rainfall for both the ABC and the SSS islands during the second half of 2010, including the upcoming rainy season (October-December).

Last updated: August 20, 2010
.

 
ABC *
   
General forecast (English)
General forecast (papiamentu)
Marine forecast
3 day forecast
Special Bulletin
 

SSS **
   
General forecast
Marine forecast
3 day forecast
Special Bulletin
 

Seasonal forecast
   
Forecast
 

* Aruba,Bonaire, Curaçao
** St. Maarten, St. Eustatius, Saba