Seasonal Forecast
Seasonal
Forecasts for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season
The
2009 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season is history and was, as
expected, an average one. The seasonal forecasts issued by the
Colorado State
University (CSU) and the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. were both quite well. The first
seasonal
forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued by the CSU was
issued on December 9, 2009, the second one will be issued on April 7, the third on June 2 and the fourth on August 4,
2010. More updates will follow in early September and October of this year.
Information
obtained through December 2009 indicates that the upcoming Atlantic
hurricane season, according to the CSU forecasters, will be more active
than the 2009 season and that we will see activity somewhat above the
1950-2000 season average. The expected tropical cyclone activity
during this season should be slightly above the 1950-2000 average season.
It is estimated that
2010 will have between six and eight hurricanes (average is 5.9),
eleven to sixteen
named
storms (average is 9.6), 51 to 79 named storm days (average is
49.1), 24 to 39
hurricane days (average is 24.5), three to five major (category 3-4-5)
hurricanes (average is 2.3) and six to twelve major hurricane days
(average is
5.0). The probability of a Caribbean and U.S. major hurricane landfall
is
estimated to
be somewhat above the long-period average. The Atlantic Basin
Net
Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 is forecast to be about 108 to
172
percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on a new
extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that
utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niņo conditions
are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore the Colorado
State University forecasters do not utilize a specific El Niņo Southern
Oscillation forecast as a predictor. These forecasters expect to see
the moderate to strong El Niņo event that is currently in
progress, to diminish by the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. are also planning to issue
a seasonal
forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity. The first one however won't be
issued until May 2010.
It
should be noted that none of these seasonal forecasts has any
operational value. This means that no matter how many tropical cyclones
are forecast to develop, there is no way to predict so many months in
advance where a certain tropical cyclone is going to develop
and what areas, if any, will be affected. Remember too that
it takes only one major hurricane in even a quiet season (Andrew in
August 1992 over South Florida) to move over a populated area to make
it a significant event.
Therefore,
it is important that the entire community in the hurricane region
prepares itself before the start of each hurricane season. The
Meteorological Service will monitor the development of any tropical
disturbance closely and will issue watches or warnings in case this is
necessary.
Rainfall
Outlook 2010
The
year 2009 ended and 2010 started with a moderate El Niņo phase
dominating the weather over our islands. That’s the main reason of
the below average rainfall
observed during the 2009 rainy season (-74%) of the ABC Islands. In
fact, with so little rain,
there was no actual 2009 rainy season to speak of in these
Islands. Even the SSS Islands, which should have received average
rainfall during the second half of 2009, received less than that. March and April 2010 are forecast
to remain relatively dry, because of El Niņo's influence.
Sea Surface
Temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean however
are forecast to decrease during the second quarter of 2010 (April, May and June) to neutral
values and that is expected to lead to average or even slightly above
average values of rainfall in the ABC Islands. In the
Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, little significant change in sea
surface temperatures is expected during this year. This is forecast to
result in a better chance of significant rainfall for both the ABC and
the SSS islands during the second half of 2010.
Last
updated: February 26, 2010.
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Aruba,Bonaire, Curaçao |
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St. Maarten, St. Eustatius, Saba |
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